After days and days of rumors, it's now official that Steemit is part (will join) Tron blockchain.
But before you join the hype and start praising that Justin Sun is the Steem blockchain savior, we all need to put some things in perspective:
STEEM Price (or Buy the rumors Sell the News)
This old saying in financial markets have never been so much true as it is now.
Rumors about Justin Sun looking to acquire Steem started to pop up on December 19. It's really interesting to see what happened to STEEM price at that time:
It's really interesting to see the effects of rumors on the price of an asset. As you can see above, beggining of december and mid january there was a huge increase of buying volume, and today, another big increase, making STEEM price go up close to 70% in less than 3 months.
Also, notice the red boxes. These are called accumulation phase, when the big market players (aka Whales) start to buy the asset, but doing it slowly to avoid a big price increase while they are increasing their positions.
Later, they start to pump the price, specially when new rumors appears.
I can see two things happening from now:
- On the next days, price will fall a bit, like happened before, and it is possible that another acumulation phase start
- Things will go a bit slow until the new Steemit platform on top of tron is announced, then the price will pump again.
What will happen after that it's a big mistery, because it will depend on how things will develop in ths new phase.
Anyway, that is my personal opinion, and you are free to disagree, but what i will do is to start to be more liquid on STEEM (aka start some power down) and wait and see what will happen on the next few months.
Will Steem be the same?
That is where thins are still a bit foggy.
On the official announcement it is stated that:
Together, TRON Foundation and Steemit Inc. will look to create further value for their users and to augment their advancements in decentralized technologies, including moving old STEEM token to a new TRON based STEEM token, giveaways to the existing TRX users with the new TRON based STEEM token, as well as a new accelerator program towards the developer community.
This could mean that the Steem blockchain as it is now will be gone, and everything will be moved to the Tron Blockchain, maybe with the Steem code being implemented as a Smart Contract on the Tron Blockchain.
Notice that they are "moving the old STEEM token to a new TRON based STEEM token".
The most probable outcome here is that Steemit (along with all other dApps already developed) will become another Tron dApp.
Witnessess, developers and forks
What will be interesting to see is what will be the witnesses position in this situation.
This can be seen as an interesting point of the blockchain history. Can a company actually buy a blockchain? What if the current witness don't agree with this move? Will they fork it out of the Tron plans?
I still haven't seen any official statement from any witness, but tomorrow A steem witness forum was called by @aggroed, after the Tron official talk that will also happen tomorrow (dlive.tv/justinsun if you are curious), and i think it will be an interesting place to be to hear their opinions.
Two possibilities are going to happen here:
- All witnessess and developers will join TronSteem
- We will see a fork, and we will have two Steem. The tron will probably be called Steem, and the fork will have to be named something else, because Steem Inc. probably owns the Steem brand.
And if a fork happens, it's also interesting to watch what directions the developers working on Steem will go.
It's still too soon to draw any conclusions from this, and also too soon to say if this is good of bad for the Steem ecosystem and community.
Therefore, don't go out there shilling Steem as a blind prophet screaming about the salvation (or the end of the world). Wait and see.
But i think it could be a good idea to increase your liquidity in Steem tokens, just in case there is a bad outcome from all of this. Always be ready for the worst.
Also, if you are into trading and speculating, there was never a better time to go after Steem on the markets.
Have you found the information useful? Did you had fun? Watch this ad for 5 seconds for extra support for the author!